What If The CFP Expanded? Simulating The 2024-25 College Football Season

David

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Post on Jul 07, 2025

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What If the CFP Expanded? Simulating the 2024-25 College Football Season

The College Football Playoff (CFP) expansion from four to twelve teams is a hot topic, sparking endless debates among fans and analysts alike. But what would a 12-team playoff actually look like? To get a glimpse into the future, we simulated the 2024-25 season using a 12-team playoff format, revealing some surprising potential outcomes and highlighting the intense competition this expansion would bring.

The Current Landscape: A Four-Team Playoff Isn't Enough

The current four-team CFP often leaves deserving teams on the outside looking in, fueling frustration and debate about selection criteria. This year's selection committee faced tough choices, and many felt deserving teams were unfairly left out. An expanded playoff aims to alleviate this issue, giving more teams a chance to compete for the national championship. But how would this change the game?

Simulating the 2024-25 Season: A 12-Team Showdown

Our simulation utilized a variety of factors, including projected team rankings, strength of schedule, and historical performance data. We incorporated the proposed 12-team playoff format, which includes the six highest-ranked conference champions and six at-large bids. This model allowed us to project a bracket filled with potential upsets and thrilling matchups.

Key Takeaways from the Simulation:

• Increased Parity: The 12-team format significantly increases the chances of seeing teams from outside the Power Five conferences make a deep playoff run. Our simulation showed a Group of Five team making the quarterfinals, a scenario virtually unheard of in the four-team era.
• More Upsets: The expanded field creates more opportunities for Cinderella stories. Teams with strong performances against top opponents, even with a few losses, could find themselves in the playoff mix, leading to more unpredictable and exciting games.
• Increased Value of Non-Conference Games: With more at-large bids available, the importance of strong non-conference games would significantly increase. A win against a ranked opponent early in the season could become the difference between making the playoff and missing out.
• Longer Season, Increased Revenue: The extended playoff would lengthen the season, leading to increased television revenue and exposure for a wider range of programs. This could have a significant positive impact on college football as a whole.

Potential Drawbacks:

• Player Exhaustion: A longer season could lead to increased player fatigue and injury risk.
• Diluted Championship Significance: Some argue that expanding the playoff dilutes the prestige of winning the national championship.

The Future of College Football:

The potential benefits of a 12-team CFP are numerous, offering increased parity, more exciting matchups, and greater financial opportunities. However, addressing concerns about player welfare and maintaining the championship's prestige remain crucial. Our simulation only provides a glimpse into what could be, but it highlights the potential impact of this significant change on the landscape of college football.

What are your thoughts on a 12-team CFP? Share your predictions in the comments below! [Link to comment section]

(Optional: Include links to relevant articles about CFP expansion, projected rankings for the 2024-25 season, and the proposed 12-team playoff format.)