NFL 2023 Postseason: The Underdogs And Long Shots With The Highest Probability Of Making The Playoffs

David

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Post on May 30, 2025

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NFL 2023 Postseason: The Underdogs and Long Shots with the Highest Probability of Making the Playoffs

The NFL regular season is a whirlwind of upsets, nail-biting finishes, and surprising performances. While the usual suspects—the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, and Philadelphia Eagles—dominate early predictions for the 2023 postseason, several teams are quietly building momentum and possess a surprisingly high probability of sneaking into the playoffs. This article dives deep into the underdogs and long shots with the best chance of making a postseason run this year.

Methodology: Beyond Just Wins and Losses

Predicting NFL playoff contenders goes beyond simply looking at win-loss records. We've considered several key factors:

• Strength of Schedule (SOS): A team's record looks much better when they've dominated weaker opponents. We adjust for SOS to get a more accurate picture of a team's true strength.
• Offensive and Defensive Efficiency: Advanced metrics like DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) provide a nuanced view of a team's performance on both sides of the ball. High efficiency on offense and defense significantly increases playoff odds.
• Injury Reports: The health of key players dramatically impacts team performance. Teams with significant injuries to key starters face a steeper climb to the playoffs.
• Coaching and Team Chemistry: A strong coaching staff and cohesive team culture can overcome obstacles that purely statistical models might miss.

The Contenders: Underdogs with a Real Shot

Several teams are defying expectations and showing surprising strength:

1. The New York Jets: With Aaron Rodgers at the helm, the Jets have transformed their offense. While their defense remains a force to be reckoned with, consistency will be key. Their playoff chances hinge on Rodgers staying healthy and avoiding costly turnovers. A strong finish to the season is crucial for them to secure a Wild Card spot.

2. The Detroit Lions: The Lions' electrifying offense, led by Jared Goff, is a joy to watch. Their improved defense is equally important, and if they can maintain their offensive firepower and improve their consistency, a playoff berth is within reach. Their success depends on capitalizing on their offensive potential and staying healthy. They're a team to watch closely.

3. The New Orleans Saints: The Saints are a team that constantly surprises. Their strong running game and a relatively solid defense are their strengths. The Saints' playoff hopes depend heavily on the performance of their offense and maintaining consistency throughout the season. They are a dark horse candidate to watch.

Long Shots with a Glimmer of Hope:

While their chances might seem slimmer, these teams still possess a non-zero probability of making the playoffs:

• The Green Bay Packers: The Packers' fate largely rests on the performance of Jordan Love. If he can deliver consistent performances, the Packers could surprise many.

• The Dallas Cowboys: The Cowboys' playoff hopes rely heavily on their ability to overcome injuries and establish consistency. A strong finish to the season is essential for them.

Conclusion: The Race is On

The 2023 NFL season is shaping up to be one of the most exciting in recent memory. While some teams are clear favorites, the underdogs and long shots discussed above possess the potential to upset the established order and secure a coveted playoff berth. Keep your eyes peeled on these teams; their performance in the coming weeks will significantly impact the playoff picture. Stay tuned for updates and further analysis as the season unfolds!

Call to Action: What team do you think is the biggest underdog with a realistic shot at the playoffs? Share your predictions in the comments below!