NFL 2023 Playoffs: The Underdogs And Long Shots With The Highest Probability Of Making It

David

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Post on Jun 09, 2025

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NFL 2023 Playoffs: The Underdogs and Long Shots with the Highest Probability of Making it

The NFL playoffs are upon us, and while the usual suspects like the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles are heavily favored, the beauty of the postseason lies in the potential for upsets. This year, several teams with longer odds possess a surprisingly high probability of making a deep playoff run. Forget the pre-season predictions; let's dive into the underdogs and long shots with the best chance of defying expectations and causing chaos in the 2023 NFL Playoffs.

Understanding Probability in the NFL Playoffs: Predicting playoff success isn't just about looking at regular season records. Factors like momentum, injury reports, coaching strategies, and even the element of luck play significant roles. We'll be considering a combination of these factors to identify the teams with the most realistic paths to success.

The Top Contenders Among the Underdogs:

While defining "underdog" is subjective (depending on betting odds and pre-season expectations), these teams represent strong contenders who weren't necessarily considered Super Bowl favorites going into the season:

1. The Jacksonville Jaguars: Their explosive offense, led by Trevor Lawrence, has proven capable of dominating even the strongest defenses. Their improved defense under Doug Pederson’s guidance makes them a serious threat. The Jaguars' playoff experience, coupled with their potent offense, gives them a surprisingly high chance of advancing. Their wildcard matchup will be crucial in determining their potential.

2. The New York Giants: Despite a less-than-stellar regular season finish, the Giants demonstrated resilience and a strong running game throughout the year. Their defense, while not elite, is capable of stifling opponents, especially if they can control the clock effectively. Their playoff experience, albeit limited compared to other teams, might be a surprising asset.

3. The Baltimore Ravens (with caveats): The Ravens' playoff hopes are heavily reliant on the health of Lamar Jackson. If Jackson is healthy and at full strength, their explosive offense and strong defense could catapult them deep into the playoffs. However, any setback with Jackson's injury significantly diminishes their chances. This makes them a high-risk, high-reward underdog.

Long Shots with a Puncher's Chance:

These teams face a tougher uphill battle, but certain scenarios could easily propel them into contention:

• The Seattle Seahawks: Geno Smith's surprising success this season shouldn't be overlooked. The Seahawks' young, dynamic offense and their passionate fanbase could provide the energy needed for a few unexpected wins. However, their playoff experience is minimal, making a deep run less probable.

• The Dallas Cowboys: While not traditionally considered a long shot, their inconsistent play this season warrants caution. A hot Dak Prescott and a strong defensive performance could certainly push them far, but their ceiling this year is debatable.

Factors to Watch:

• Injury Reports: The health of key players will be paramount. One significant injury can drastically alter a team's chances. Stay updated on injury news leading up to and during the playoffs.
• Home-Field Advantage: Playing at home offers a considerable boost. Teams with home-field advantage throughout the playoffs have a statistically higher chance of success.
• Coaching Strategies: Playoff games are often won and lost based on crucial coaching decisions. The tactical prowess of head coaches will play a significant role.

Conclusion:

While predicting the NFL playoffs with complete accuracy is impossible, analyzing team strengths, weaknesses, and potential scenarios allows us to identify the underdogs and long shots with a realistic chance of causing major upsets. Keep an eye on the Jaguars, Giants, and a healthy Ravens team; they possess the firepower and potential to make a serious playoff push. Remember, in the NFL, anything can happen. The 2023 Playoffs promise to be full of surprises. Stay tuned!

Call to Action: What underdog team are you rooting for this NFL playoff season? Share your predictions in the comments below!